Donald Trump will have his ironclad grip on congressional Republicans tested like never before if the party loses one or both chambers Tuesday.
Trump already appears to be gearing up to blame others if Democrats retake the House or the Senate. But within the halls of the Capitol, GOP lawmakers are contemplating whether the president’s ability to bend them to his whims will diminish if the party is swept out of power.
“We’ll see,” Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) said when asked how much influence the president will have after the midterms, before praising Trump’s record and willingness to hit the campaign trail on behalf of Republican candidates.
Granted anonymity to speak frankly before the election, many of the 15 GOP lawmakers interviewed about the future of Trump’s influence said they believe his days of dictating outcomes with Truth Social posts and late-night phone calls could be coming to an end.
“It's not like his persuasion is growing,” said a Republican senator. “Political capital is earned and lost the same way.”
One House Republican cast the potential fight for minority leader as an early test of Trump’s sway: “One would say that the president would have quite a bit of influence on who leads in the minority. But one would also say that he has less influence because some people would blame him” for a loss.
The member added: “That will be an interesting dynamic after Election Day. No one expects Trump to take any blame after the election. So if he doesn't, who does?”
It’s hardly the first time Republicans have predicted that Trump’s days of dominating the GOP were on the wane. A broad swath of the party turned on him after the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021, only to come back to the fold as he regained power.
Despite plenty of kvetching publicly and privately about some of Trump's policies and personnel picks since being sworn in for a second term, most in the party have fallen in line — and few expect him to change his high-pressure style during his final two years in office.
Many Republicans anticipate he'll weigh in on 2028 congressional primaries while also playing a loud role in determining the party’s presidential nominee — as well as weighing in on day-to-day machinations on Capitol Hill.
“He’s going to continue fully engaged … regardless of the outcome,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said in an interview, praising Trump’s “very creative” and “thoughtful” ideas on domestic and foreign affairs.
Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) said in an interview “it'll be challenging” for Trump if Republicans lose the House but said his influence would persist: “He still has the bully pulpit, and I say that in a good way.”
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said Trump “is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress.”
But unlike Trump’s last midterm drubbing, in 2018, a decisive loss this time would officially usher him into lame-duck status. While House members will all be campaigning for reelection with Trump still in office — and face the prospect of a presidential primary threat — only about a third of currently sitting Republican senators are in the same boat.
The rest will stand for reelection in 2030 and 2032, after Trump is out of office.
One GOP senator pointed to the party’s stable of vulnerable candidates and incumbents who have broken with Trump over the Iran conflict as a sign of things to come if Republicans take a battering Tuesday.
“He’s in trouble,” the senator said.
Another House Republican added that if Democrats win only a small majority in that chamber, Trump will “still carry a lot of sway.” But a “shellacking,” the lawmaker said, will have Trump “looking for our help more than we’d be looking for his.”
“If it’s truly a big blue wave, every committee will investigate the hell out of him the next two years and R’s will quickly start looking at [2028] and beyond,” the member added in a text message.
Trump will face a series of quick tests after the midterms. The House is expected to vote on whether to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth soon after members return. Some Republicans said if voters deliver a wipeout for their party amid widespread dissatisfaction with the Iran war, several of their colleagues could end up supporting the measure.
The president could also face headwinds if he tries to muscle a final party-line spending bill through Congress before Democrats take charge in either chamber and kill any chance for partisan legislation like the election bill known as the SAVE America Act. Republicans have already struggled to move these measures, and GOP lawmakers who just lost reelection could have little reason to rally behind them on their way out the door.
House Republicans are in particular keeping their eyes on whether Trump will weigh in on the GOP leadership races that will play out in the week after the election.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan of Ohio are expected to clash if Republicans are electing a minority leader. But many GOP lawmakers think Speaker Mike Johnson could have a shot at hanging on as the chamber's top Republican if Trump wants it.
Jordan and Scalise are also both close Trump allies, and most Republicans are skeptical he would choose between the two.
“The president of the United States certainly has influence,” Jordan said in an interview. “I think he'll continue to have influence.”
In the Senate, conservatives are privately questioning whether Trump will blame Senate Majority Leader John Thune if Republicans lose control of the chamber.
Trump sowed doubt about Thune’s leadership over the summer as he stewed about the Senate’s failure to act on the elections bill. But he more recently publicly defended Thune during the party’s midterm convention in September.
Many Republican senators expect Thune to keep his job even if Trump moves against him. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has aired frustrations about how the Senate is run but has repeatedly said he won’t run for leader and has declined to criticize Thune. Some GOP senators have privately speculated about whether Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has leadership ambitions, but few think he’s actually interested.
Trump turning on Thune “certainly would not” cause Thune to lose his leadership race, said one of the GOP senators, adding that it was “absolutely the case” that Thune would keep his job even if Trump balks.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), who is in line to run the Senate GOP campaign arm in the next Congress, said of Thune, “I don't think there's an insurgent movement that's against him.”
Barrasso, the No. 2 Republican, is backing Thune as well. Asked about the speculation that Trump could turn on Thune, Barrasso said, “He’s going to get reelected as leader.”
